Can Scotland finally break the New Zealand curse?
International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh When: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.
Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.
The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.
Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.
Modern Encounters
Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Team News
Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.
As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Key Absences
Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Replacement Concerns
They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.
Coaching Choices
The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Historical Context
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.
By the Numbers
For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.
Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.